Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland     

Erik Rüttener  Juan José Egozcue  Dieter Mayer-Rosa  Stephan Mueller 《Natural Hazards》1996,14(2-3):165-178

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.  相似文献   

Red dust rain within the Spanish Mediterranean area     

José Quereda Sala  Jorge Olcina Cantos  Enrique Montón Chiva 《Climatic change》1996,32(2):215-228

Dust rain belongs to the climatological conditions of the Iberian Peninsula's Mediterranean seaboard. Traditionally known as muddy' or bloody rains, red dust rain has become a topical issue as a result of more frequent rainfall of this kind in recent years. In spite of the difficulties that studying this phenomenon involves, owing to the lack of systematically kept records at meteorological observatories, details are provided of the high frequency of such phenomena within the Spanish Mediterranean area, using records from other phenological sources. The study analyzes the chemical composition of red dust rain and the atmospheric factors giving rise to such phenomena. Whether there is a relationship betwen the higher frequency of dust rain and possible changes in global atmospheric circulation is as yet unclear.  相似文献   

A Yohkoh search for “black-light flares”     

Lidia Van Driel-Gesztelvi  Hugh S. Hudson  Bachtiar Anwar  Eijiro Hiei 《Solar physics》1994,152(1):145-151

Calculations which predict that a phenomenon analogous to stellar negative pre-flares could also exist on the Sun were published by Hénouxet al. (1990), and Aboudarhamet al., (1990), who showed that at the beginning of a solar white-light flare (WLF) event an electron beam can cause a transient darkening before the WLF emission starts, under certain conditions. They named this event a black light flare (BLF). Such a BLF event should appear as diffuse dark patches lasting for about 20 seconds preceding the WLF emission, which would coincide with intense and impulsive hard X-ray bursts. The BLF location would be at (or in the vicinity of) the forthcoming bright patches. Their predicted contrast depends on the position of the flare on the solar disc and on the wavelength band of the observation.TheYohkoh satellite provided white-light data from the aspect camera of the SXT instrument (Tsunetaet al., 1991), at 431 nm and with a typical image interval of 10–12 s. We have studied nine white-light flares observed with this instrument, with X-ray class larger than M6. We have found a few interesting episodes, but no unambiguous example of the predicted BLF event. This study, although the best survey to date, was not ideal from the observational point of view. We therefore encourage further searches. Successful observations of this phenomenon on the Sun would greatly strengthen our knowledge of the lower solar atmosphere and its effects on solar luminosity variations.  相似文献   

WKB estimates for the onset of ideal MHD instabilities in solar coronal loops     

A. W. Hood  P. De Bruyne  R. A. M. Van Der Linden  M. Goossens 《Solar physics》1994,150(1-2):99-115

A WKB approach, based on the method of Connor, Hastie, and Taylor (1979), is used to obtain simple estimates of the critical conditions for the onset of ideal MHD instabilities in line-tied solar coronal loops. The method is illustrated for the constant twist, Gold-Hoyle (1960) field, and the critical conditions are compared with previous and new numerical results. For the force-free case, the WKB estimate for the critical loop length reduces to . For the sufficiently non-force-free case the critical length can be expressed in the forml ₀ +l ₁/m. The results confirm the findings of De Bruyne and Hood (1992) that for force-free fields them = 1 mode is the first mode to become unstable but for the sufficiently strong non-force-free case this reverses with them → ∞ mode being excited first.  相似文献   

Palomar prime-focus infrared camera (PFIRCAM)     

T. H. Jarrett  C. A. Beichman  D. Van Buren  N. Gautier  C. Jorquera  C. Bruce 《Experimental Astronomy》1994,3(1-4):133-134

In a joint effort between engineers and scientists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the California Institute of Technology, a near-infrared (0.8–2.6 m) direct imaging system has been developed and integrated into the Caltech Palomar Observatory detector series. The camera system has been tested and operated in a science mode at the prime-focus (f/3.3) of the Hale 5-m Telescope. This paper outlines the system components and performance, including discussion of the detector linearity.  相似文献   

A verification of some methods to determine the fluxes of momentum,sensible heat,and water vapour using standard deviation and structure parameter of scalar meteorological quantities     

H. A. R. De Bruin  W. Kohsiek  B. J. J. M. Van Den Hurk 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1993,63(3):231-257

A set of micro-meteorological data collected over a horizontal, uniform terrain (the plain of La Crau, France) in June 1987 is analysed. Conditions were predominantly sunny and arid, while due to the Mistral the wind speed could exceed 10 m/s. Verification of several methods to evaluate surface fluxes of heat, momentum and water vapour from the standard deviation of temperature, wind and specific humidity is presented. Also, a similar approach using the structure parameter of temperature is considered. These methods are all based on Monin-Obukhov (M-O) similarity theory. It is found that the standard deviation of temperature, vertical and horizontal wind speed as well as the structure parameter for temperature behave according to M-O similarity. It is shown that the sensible heat flux and friction velocity can be determined from a fast response thermometer and a cup anemometer. Also, it appears that the analytic solution of the set of governing equations as derived by the first author yields good results. M-O theory does not appear to work for the standard deviation of specific humidity. This may be due to the relative importance of large eddies.  相似文献   

Paleohydrology and paleoclimate records in a saline prairie lake core: mineral,isotope and organic indicators     

D. R. Van Stempvoort  T. W. D. Edwards  M. S. Evans  W. M. Last 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1993,8(2):135-147

This pilot study examines the potential of obtaining a sedimentary record of paleoenvironmental/climatic/hydrologic conditions for saline Redberry Lake in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The tools are mineralogy, stable isotopes and pigments. The upper meter of an offshore sediment core contains 10 to 20% by weight aragonite (CaCO₃), which apparently precipitated in the water column. The ¹⁸O and ¹³C of the bulk aragonite (corrected for content of detrital calcite) vary by 4 to 5. Enrichment in ¹⁸O in aragonite is significantly correlated with pigment concentrations (chlorophyll a, phaeophytin). The ¹⁸O and pigment data provide evidence for relatively dry and/or warm conditions and high limnetic productivity for the period 2500 to 1500 yrs B.P. After 1500 B.P., the climate was apparently similar to the present, with two episodes of relatively enhanced productivity, dryness and/or warmth, at around 1000 to 900 and 500 to 200 B.P. During the past century, Redberry Lake has decreased approximately 8 m in depth and its salinity has doubled. No clear sedimentary signal was observed in response to these recent hydrologic trends. These changes have not been associated with a significant climate trend in the region, but may have been induced by land use changes in the catchment.This publication is the third of a series of papers presented at the Conference on Sedimentary and Paleolimnological Records of Saline Lakes. This Conference was held August 13–16, 1991 at the University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada. Dr. Evans is serving as Guest Editor for this series.  相似文献   

On the tidal variation of the geopotential     

José M. Ferrándiz  Juan Getino 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1993,57(1-2):279-292

In this paper analytical expressions are derived for the temporal variations ofJ ₂ andJ ₂₂ due to the tides of the solid Earth, taking into account only the deformation of the mantle, and employing a procedure already used by the authors in their Hamiltonian theory of the Earth's rotation, which obtain the necessary parameters in a direct way by integration of those provided by a selected model of Earth interior.Numerical tables giving the periodic variation of coefficients are given, as well as a new prediction for UT1. For J ₂ and J ₂₂ the amplitudes reach such a magnitude that both two variations should not be ignored in studies involving the analysis of highly precise satellite tracking data. Moreover, the possibility of improving our knowledge of the value of those harmonic coefficients in only a more exact digit appears as to be strongly dependent on the limitations in the theoretical modeling of the variations of the inertia tensor due to solid tides.  相似文献   

The satellites of Neptune and the origin of Pluto     

R.S. Harrington  T.C. Van Flandern 《Icarus》1979,39(1):131-136

Pluto and the chaotic satellite system of Neptune may have originated from a single encounter of Neptune with a massive solar system body. A series of numerical experiments has been carried out to try to set limits on the circumstances of such an encounter. These experiments show that orbits very much like those of Pluto, Triton, and Nereid can result from a single close encounter of such a body with Neptune. The implied mass range and encounter velocities limit the source of the encountering body to a former trans-Neptunian planet in the 2- to 5-Earth-mass range.  相似文献   

Generalized polytropes: Stellar structure with a boltzmann factor     

D. K. Callebaut  N. Van Den Bergh  M. Verbruggen 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1982,86(2):397-417

In order to study the structure of a chemically homogeneous star in equilibrium, a density profile of the form T ^N exp(–µm(–)/kT) is suggested. As for polytropes, qualitative aspects of the resulting stellar model can be discussed analytically. In particular it is shown that one reobtains forN=3 Eddington's standard model, whereas forN<3 nearly polytropic models result. WhenN>3, the effective polytropic index does vary appreciably over the star. Numerical results indicate that the proposed density profile is quite reasonable in view of the simplicity of the model. From a comparison of the degree of precision of a polytropic approximation with that of the newly proposed model it follows that the new approximation is definitely better than the polytropic one. It is suggested that the model may be useful to study the structure of stellar clouds, clusters and (spherical) galaxies.Now at Department of Applied Mathematics, Queen Mary College, University of London, England.  相似文献